“Democrats have no room for error” Senate election map appears to favor GOP

WASHINGTON (Gray DC) - The non-partisan Cook Political Report believes this is the most favorable election map Senate Republicans have seen in decades.

With 23 members up for re-election compared to just 11 for Republicans, Cook Senate Editor Jessica Taylor said Democrats face an uphill battle on maintaining an edge in the upper chamber.

“Democrats have no room for error,” Taylor said. “Not only do they have to re-elect every single Democratic incumbent, but Kamala Harris also needs to win the presidency, so that Tim Walz would be the tie-breaking vote in a 50-50 Senate.”

Making matter more difficult for Democrats, most of the Republican seats up for election are in solid red areas. Democrats must defend seats in toss up or even in states that have become increasingly red.

“These are senators that won in 2006 flipped the Senate in a backlash to George W. Bush,” Taylor said. “They were re-elected in 2012 when President Obama cruised to re-election. And then they won in 2018 when Democrats had a successful midterm backlash to President Trump.”

Forecasts show particularly difficult races for Jon Tester of Montana and Sherrod Brown of Ohio. Both two states have become significantly more Republican since the early 2000s.

“In a presidential year, when we are far more polarized as a country, and the states are than they were when they were elected almost 20 years ago, that’s just where I find it hard to find a path for survival,” Taylor said.

Republicans underperformed during the last election cycle, which Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-KY, blamed on bad individual candidates.

But the GOP is widely believed to have a better crop this time around.

“Overall, they have done a better job,” Taylor said. “Particularly in a place like Montana, in a place like Pennsylvania.”

Despite the GOP advantages, Cook predicts a close contest. Taylor believes Republicans will likely hold 51-53 seats in the next session of Congress.

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