Active, wind, and stormy pattern with a cool down in the works over the weekend
After Downtown Rapid City’s first day in the 90s, a big cool-down to late April-like temps in the works
RAPID CITY, S.D. (KEVN) - Intermittent storms sailing through our area, but not everyone will get them. The upper-level energy is displaced further to the north, plus most of our area does not have much instability to play around with due to the clouds that have been streaming in on the upper-level wind.
Speaking of wind, that is quite the headline for today since it is rather gusty - 40 mph at times - and is also affecting the growth of the Creek Fire in Crook County, WY. We are hopeful that the rain we get from showers and storms this weekend can help us some.
Speaking of rain and storms, there is a marginal risk now in effect for a wealth of our area, not just today, but for tomorrow (Saturday the 15th) as well. This is where we believe the best chances of severe weather are in play for the area, especially along and east of the Black Hills. Each of these days, any severe thunderstorm that develops is capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, especially on Saturday when the environment is more unstable.
Winds will again gust to 40 mph across the area from Saturday to early Sunday morning, so secure those loose outdoor objects, and hold off on any outdoor fires since we do see some abnormally dry soil moisture, especially in the NW of our broadcast region.
The location of today’s isolated strong thunderstorm activity might be helpful if it were to bring some decently heavy rainfall. However, the challenge is that it looks to be tightly localized, with models wanting to form just one or two good cells near Buffalo or Ekalaka.
The better action appears to be tomorrow with cells firing along the spine of the Hills and picking up as they head through our broadcast area, picking up on higher instability due to clearer conditions. The clearer skies we receive should allow for us to heat up solidly area-wide. Unlike today where it seems we’re going to struggle to reach the lower 80s, we should be able to squeeze out some 90s nearly everywhere east of the Hills, including the first 90+ degree day for Downtown Rapid City tomorrow.
Cooler conditions prevail from Sunday into the week, where we drop into the upper 70s at first and even see 60s by Monday. More widespread showers look to be associated with the frontal system that swings through then, but we are not expecting any severe weather. This could be a decent rain as we have the upper-level lift for it, however, so the placement of those rains are key to put a damper on the D1 to D2 drought conditions in the northwestern sections of our area.
We clear the area out for a calm rebound into more seasonable temperatures through the middle and end of next week, with 80s and thunderstorm chances returning for the area by next weekend. Some of those might be strong, so we will keep our weather eye on all of that as we get closer - a lot of noise in the data still exists yet.
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