Heat with isolated storms, then a cool-down, but still a wait for more widespread rains

RAPID CITY, S.D. (KEVN) -We are all feeling the heat today as the 90s have officially returned to downtown Rapid City. We have at least hit 92° here, with 99° in Pine Ridge, 91° in Custer, 93° and 97° in Gillette & Newcastle as we pan around our broadcast area. Higher temperatures might have been achieved in places after this writing, but another even hotter day is projected to happen tomorrow. Out on the town and talking to people, I have heard that some feel it is a bit humid, which would be quite true since the dew point at Rapid City Regional is 61°degrees. Generally, it starts feeling muggy when dew point temperatures get into that range.

We are trying to build up moisture as one ingredient for storm activity. Still, we have been fighting against limited instability coupled with our lack of upper-level energy necessary to fire off more organized storms and keep them together. We will try for some better lift/upper-level forcing to get storms stewing and a frontal boundary, and the Storm Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma, thinks that could at least mean somewhat better storm coverage. We’re concerned about the area these storms will cover because of the developing drought in portions of western South Dakota into northeast Wyoming and southeast Montana. We aren’t thrilled with the prospect of hail the size of a quarter or larger or the possibility of a 60 mph wind gust, both of which are possible. However, we want to get some rain in areas where the drought is developing, but the first headline is, sadly, the heat. However, we get a reasonably decent break from that tonight.

Tonight’s temperatures will mainly drop to the upper 60s under clear skies. A story shower or thunderstorm is possible, however that is in quite isolated fashion west of the Hills. Another nice night to stargaze is lined up for us, albeit under somewhat humid conditions on an increasing southeasterly wind fetching in some moisture

Tomorrow is the real sizzler as well as the best chance for thunderstorms in the next 24 hours. Temperatures could reach the mid to upper-90s in many locations, especially from the Black Hills and east. Southeast winds will pump in moisture to make it feel muggy, and it also looks to be breezy. Wind gusts of 30 mph look to be possible at times. Storms should fire between 4 & 6, this time expected to affect the Hills and east into the South Dakota Plains. Again, this coverage is going to be quite isolated & there will be many who will miss out on the thunder, rain and more that these storms look to provide, but it seems there are better dynamics versus this afternoon and tonight.

Expect some more isolated storms possibly Tuesday afternoon and evening - mainly in central SW/SW South Dakota (Rapid City might get in on a little more versus Monday), then clearing and much cooler temps await us Wednesday before the southeastern winds reload with moisture and warmth, a ridge builds again, and we look to possibly see a more organized trough of low-pressure swing into the area to provide the best shower-and-storm creating lift of the week. These could be potentially stronger ones since we might have some better instability to come with the returning heat, so we’ll keep an eye on that potential as we draw closer.

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