Cloudy, stormy, then clearing and hot for the weekend
Persistent clouds, some severe storms tomorrow, then soaring to the upper-90s
RAPID CITY, S.D. (KEVN) - Unsettled weather continues as we watch some disturbances ride the western side of a ridge of high pressure that will become a bigger factor in our weather quickly as we head into the weekend. The Summer Solstice is today, but it felt nothing like it either with the cool, cloudy, and misty weather around.
Right now, expect clouds to continue tonight as we are on the northern fringe of one of those low-pressure disturbances along its attached warm front. This boundary will be the focus of persistent clouds, drizzle, and occasional showers rolling through in our southern locations (Fall River, Oglala Lakota, Jackson, and Bennett counties) before tapering off as the disturbance moves away.
Tomorrow is a slightly different story, with the possibility of clearing what looks to be another rather cloudy sky. That clearing may be on the brief side, but where we get that determines where we get the focus for some severe storms. Another system is slated to move through our area tomorrow evening into an area that should have better dynamics for changing wind direction & speed with height (shear), lift (where a boundary forces the air to rise), and moisture. Still, the amount of clearing determines where we get better levels of the fourth & final ingredient: instability (the tendency of the air to bubble up, significantly helped by the sun’s heat).
The National Weather Service Storm Prediction Center has a large portion of the KEVN viewing area under a Level 2/5 (”Slight Risk”) from the Butte & Harding County line southward in South Dakota and from the eastern half of Campbell County ( a line through Gillette & Wright) eastward to the WY/SD state line. This is primarily for the risk of large hail and damaging winds, but the risk is there for an isolated tornado or two from a line through Hot Springs to Wall southeastward. This may be the better area for storms to be the strongest overall since forecast data is consistent with clearing that area out the easiest.
Showers and storms are expected to fire up over Wyoming at or around 4-5 p.m. and move east, running into that better clearing/atmospheric energy from 6-7 p.m. tomorrow. Then, we expect clearing to begin behind those storms. (For those troubled by today’s gloom, the thought of bluer skies and sunshine becoming more prevalent will be exciting!)
Isolated storms could fire off the Black Hills on Saturday, but that day will be marked by sunshine and warmer temperatures, which is the big theme as we move through the weekend into next week. Temperatures in the lower 80s Saturday will give way to upper 80s Sunday under much clearer skies that will allow the sun to heat us up to the upper 90s by Monday. Quite the shock to the system as we go from well-below-average today to 15 above on your Monday!
We will continue to watch for thunderstorm chances as they return Tuesday & Wednesday as we watch for another disturbance to ride our high-pressure ridge. Some of those storms could be strong as this time of year usually carries the risk for, so we’ll keep you updated should that possibility become more concrete.
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