The Biden campaign sees a pathway to victory through Florida

The Biden-Harris campaign is now eyeing the one-time battleground state of Florida in Election 2024.

“Florida is a competitive state. It is winnable for Democrats, but only if you put in the time and resources that we are doing,” said Kevin Munoz, the senior national spokesperson for Biden’s campaign.

In a memo, the campaign said it has multiple pathways to 270 electoral votes including through Florida.

“We believe that this message, the agenda that Joe Biden is running on, is one that can really help flip Florida blue,” said Munoz.

Yet the president faces an uphill battle in the Sunshine State, which has been a GOP stronghold in recent years. It has not been won by a Democratic presidential candidate since 2012, Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis’ won his 2022 re-election in a landslide victory and now, Republican registered voters outnumber Democrats by a little more than 900,000.

But the president’s re-election campaign said that Florida is a state where the Democratic coalition is growing and is a place where Biden “has a compelling list of results.”

It outlined the state strategy in the memo, which includes a focus on the battle over abortion rights. It says the issue will be “front and center” in the state during this election season because of an abortion amendment that is set to be on ballots there.

“We know abortion specifically has been a huge mobilizer for a broad and diverse coalition of voters, and we fully expect it to be the same this November,” said Munoz.

The ballot initiative would enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution. The vote will come just months after the Florida Supreme Court ordered a six-week abortion ban to go into effect.

Nikki Fried, Chair of the Florida Democratic Party, said she believes Republicans will be “held accountable” in November for restricting abortion access.

“Floridians understand that Donald Trump got us here because he stacked the Supreme Court and campaigned on the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Ron DeSantis took the ball and threw it into the end zone, and the Republican legislature caught it. And so now that we’re sitting in this situation here in our state. Floridians are going to connect the dots,” said Fried.

Fried also said that Democrats have an opportunity this fall to prove that Florida is still a battleground state and believes they could be in a better position than during the 2022 gubernatorial election.

“A million Democrats stayed home in November of 2022. But if a million Democrats stayed home, how many left leaning independents also stayed home? And in Florida right now, almost one third of our state are independents. And we are seeing independents really break for Democrats in the last year and a half,” she said.

Campaign leaders said they are investing in the state for other reasons too, including because Republicans have made it “Trump’s MAGA blueprint” for their “toxic” agenda.

“Florida is ground zero for Donald Trump’s extreme, dangerous and losing agenda. And when you look at the issues that will define this election, Florida is really an example of just how much is at stake in this election for working people,” said Munoz.

The strategy also includes spotlighting “deeply unpopular” legislation that was passed by Republicans in the state and showing how the GOP agenda has led to high costs for Floridians.

Munoz said campaign ads are now ramping up, offices and staff are being announced and organizing is being carried out across the state.

Professor Lonna Atkeson, Director of the LeRoy Collins Institute at Florida State University, said there certainly is a chance for a fight in the red-leaning state, especially this year. She expects high turnout with both abortion and marijuana amendments on the ballot.

“There’s lots of things on the ballot to draw people in and to encourage, participation. So I expect high turnout. And I think high turnout will increase the competitiveness of the state,” said Atkeson.

However, she is not sure if those initiatives will necessarily benefit one candidate over another.

“I think that, you know, red voters are certainly likely to vote pro-choice on abortion, at least some of them, and vote red at the top of the ticket. I think that they’re going to split their ticket. But it also means that there are potentially, you know, these infrequent voters and they’re up for grabs,” said Atkeson.

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