Election 2024: The Battle for control of the Senate
Senate seats will be on the ballot in 34 states.
WASHINGTON (Gray DC) - Control of the U.S. Senate hangs in the balance in the November election.
A total of 34 Senate contests will be on the ballot in November. For Democrats, keeping control could be an uphill battle.
With less than nine months until election day, Republicans feel confident about their prospects for winning back the U.S. Senate. Although Democrats currently hold a 51-49 majority, most of the seats up for election are held by Democrats.
The big targets for Republicans are Montana and Ohio, where Democrats Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown have held their seats for several terms.
Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin said Democrats have to take into consideration how close the last two presidential elections were when game-planning on how to keep the Senate.
“Democrats are playing defense not just in states that Donald Trump won in 2020,” said Rubashkin, noting former President Trump won Ohio and Montana. “[Democrats] also on defense in a whole number of states that were very close at the presidential level, both in 2016 and 2020, and perhaps even a few states that Republicans have done well with candidate recruitment, that won’t be competitive at the presidential level.”
Democrats are already preparing for a loss in West Virginia, a state Donald Trump won by almost 39 points in 2020. Senator Joe Manchin (D-W. Va.) is retiring. That’s paving the way for a Republican gain in November. Friday, Manchin confirmed he is not running for president.
The one potential gain for Democrats is in Texas where Senator Ted Cruz is running for his third six-year term, and locked into a tight race against Congressman Collin Allred (D-Texas).
“Texas has trended toward Democrats direction over the last decade,” said Rubashkin. “Not as quickly as some Democrats would have hoped, but they’ve got a good candidate there in Congressman Collin Allred.”
A wildcard in the 2024 election cycle is abortion. The issue energized Democratic voters in the 2022 midterms. Arizona, Florida, Montana and Nevada are among the states where abortion could be on the ballot.
Another wildcard is whether President Biden and likely Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump will be a drag on Senate candidates in key battleground states like Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
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